TN University predicts 1.5 lakh COVID-19 cases in Chennai by mid-July

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The prediction is based on mathematical projections. The university's projections are used by government for active surveillance and preparedness.

Epidemiologists at the state-run Tamil Nadu Dr MGR Medical University has predicted 1.5 lakh Covid-19 cases in the state capital of Chennai and up to 1,600 deaths by July second week at the current rate of growth.

Indian Express quoted Dr G Srinivas, professor and head of the department of epidemiology at the university, as saying that their projection shows the number of cases in Chennai will touch 1.5 lakh by July 15 and will peak in mid-October. The university began projections from April 18, and submitted it to the government in May first week.

“The disease continues to spread. However, the government is currently well-prepared to handle the number of cases with enough number of beds, isolation facilities, ICUs and such crucial infrastructure,” he said.

His team’s projection says the state may record 1.3 lakh Covid-19 cases and 769 deaths by June 30.

In 19 days, Covid cases in state jumped from 10,000 to 27,256 on Thursday. The city has 9,066 active cases, and reported 1,072 cases Thursday. Of the total cases reported in Tamil Nadu since March 7, 18,693 cases were from Chennai.

The university in the second week of April predicted that Covid cases will go up from 3,097 to 5,442 in the first 10 days of May. The real figures rose from 2,526 to 7,204 between May 1 and 10. Projection of Covid death number for May 10 was 38 and the actual figure was 47, the Indian Express report said.

Image Credit: The Print

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